000
WTNT24 KNHC 112050
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N  78.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 200SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 270SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N  78.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  80.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.1N  74.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 240SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 41.2N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 270SE 180SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.5N  55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 360SE 270SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 47.0N  42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 210SE 210SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 48.5N  17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 210SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 46.5N   7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N  78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN