000
WTNT24 KNHC 100844
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
0900 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICA
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  60.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  60.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  59.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.0N  61.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.5N  64.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N  67.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  60SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 27.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 34.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  60.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA