000
WTNT24 KNHC 091446
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  57.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  45SE  60SW 190NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  57.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  57.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.1N  59.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N  62.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE  60SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.9N  64.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE  90SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.3N  66.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT...150NE  90SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N  69.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N  57.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN