000
WTNT24 KNHC 052045
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2008
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  64.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT.......105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  64.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  63.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N  66.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N  68.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.1N  71.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.2N  73.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N  78.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N  81.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  64.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN