000
WTNT24 KNHC 042031
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2008
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N  58.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  55SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N  58.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  57.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.9N  60.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.7N  62.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N  65.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N  67.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 25.5N  79.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N  58.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE