000
WTNT24 KNHC 212047
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2008
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR.  A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS.  A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS
LATER TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  91.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  91.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  90.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N  93.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  50SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N  94.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N  96.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N  97.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.0N  99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N  91.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB