000
WTNT24 KNHC 181447
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1500 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007
 
AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND
FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.   A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  68.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  929 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT.......100NE  60SE  50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE  75SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  68.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  67.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N  71.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N  74.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N  77.8W...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N  81.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N  88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  68.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA