000
WTNT24 KNHC 162031
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2007
 
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
   
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  56.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  15SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  75SE  60SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE  90SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  56.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  55.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N  59.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  15SE  15SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  75SE  60SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE  90SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N  70.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  90SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N  90.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N  56.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA