000
WTNT24 KNHC 160912
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

...CORRECTED WARNINGS...
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  52.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  60SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  52.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  51.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.9N  55.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N  59.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.9N  63.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.4N  66.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N  87.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  52.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN