000
WTNT24 KNHC 160240
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2007
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA...
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  50.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  60SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  50.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  49.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N  53.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.2N  57.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.8N  61.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.3N  64.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.3N  71.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N  78.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N  85.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  50.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN