000
WTNT24 KNHC 151435
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2007
 
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  46.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  46.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  45.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N  48.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.1N  52.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N  55.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.2N  59.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N  78.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  46.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE