000
WTNT23 KNHC 132031
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017
2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  71.7W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  71.7W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  71.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.3N  72.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.1N  72.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.9N  71.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.1N  68.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  70SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.8N  59.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE  90SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 45.0N  44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N  71.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI