000
WTNT23 KNHC 160258
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0300 UTC THU OCT 16 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  68.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 165SE 165SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  68.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  68.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 25.8N  68.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.1N  68.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.7N  66.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.8N  64.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  40NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 43.8N  57.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 55.0N  17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N  68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE