000
WTNT23 KNHC 141453
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  65.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  60SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  65.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  64.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.7N  66.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.3N  67.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.6N  68.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.1N  68.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.4N  66.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 37.4N  62.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 46.8N  53.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N  65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART