000
WTNT23 KNHC 130854
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0900 UTC MON OCT 13 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  60.9W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  60.9W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  60.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.4N  62.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.6N  64.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.2N  65.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 23.8N  68.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 26.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 29.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  60.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN