000
WTNT23 KNHC 130234
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0300 UTC MON OCT 13 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  60.2W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  60.2W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  59.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N  61.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.7N  63.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.8N  65.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N  66.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 24.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 27.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  60.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN