000
WTNT23 KNHC 061435
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1500 UTC THU SEP 06 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N  41.3W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N  41.3W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  41.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.6N  41.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 31.2N  41.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.9N  42.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.4N  42.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.4N  44.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 35.2N  45.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 38.0N  47.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N  41.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS