000
WTNT23 KNHC 130239
TCMAT3
HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
0300 UTC WED OCT 13 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  86.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  45SE  30SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  86.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  86.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.9N  86.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N  85.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.1N  84.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.5N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N  86.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI