000
WTNT23 KNHC 160854
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
0900 UTC THU SEP 16 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARRA
DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  91.6W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 15NE  15SE  60SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  91.6W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  91.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.3N  93.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.7N  94.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N  96.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.1N  97.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N  91.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN