000
WTNT23 KNHC 152032
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
2100 UTC WED SEP 15 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT.  INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KARL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  89.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 35NE  20SE  20SW  35NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  89.4W AT 15/2100Z...INLAND
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  88.8W...INLAND
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N  90.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.5N  92.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  35NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.1N  94.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.3N  95.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N  98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 21.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N  89.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN