000
WTNT22 KNHC 252035
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  64.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  75SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  64.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  64.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N  63.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.6N  61.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.9N  60.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N  60.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 26.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  64.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG