000
WTNT22 KNHC 031256
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
1300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  87.6W AT 03/1300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  87.6W AT 03/1300Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  86.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.4N  88.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.4N  88.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.0N  88.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.3N  88.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.0N  87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 30NE  80SE  30SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 34.5N  83.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 38.5N  77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  87.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN