000
WTNT22 KNHC 171444
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1500 UTC WED OCT 17 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  59.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  30 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 300SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  59.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N  60.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.0N  54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.8N  45.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW  90NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 220SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N  36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 180SE 160SW  30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 51.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 300SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.0N  33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 150NW.
34 KT...120NE  50SE 100SW 300NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 47.5N  34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 43.5N  29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N  59.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN