000
WTNT22 KNHC 162034
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  63.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  23 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  63.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  64.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.0N  61.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N  57.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.1N  50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.6N  40.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 270SW 270NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 52.5N  29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 420SW 360NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.5N  34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 44.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N  63.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE