000
WTNT22 KNHC 160244
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  65.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  65.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  65.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.6N  64.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.6N  62.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.4N  59.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.2N  54.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N  37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 140SW  40NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 48.5N  26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 49.5N  26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N  65.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH