000
WTNT22 KNHC 141449
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  64.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  64.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  64.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N  65.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.2N  66.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N  66.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.1N  64.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.7N  58.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  90SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 48.5N  48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N  40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  64.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN