000
WTNT22 KNHC 131437
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR MARTINIQUE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  64.1W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  64.1W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  63.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N  64.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.2N  65.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.0N  66.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.6N  67.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 38.0N  61.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.0N  54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  64.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN