000
WTNT22 KNHC 130852
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
0900 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  64.2W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  64.2W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  63.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N  64.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.8N  65.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.5N  65.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.2N  66.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.4N  67.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 35.8N  62.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 45.0N  56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  64.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA