000
WTNT22 KNHC 120845
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2009
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  33.6W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  45SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  33.6W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  33.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.0N  33.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.6N  33.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.5N  35.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.5N  37.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N  42.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 24.0N  48.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 25.5N  53.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  33.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE