000
WTNT22 KNHC 081433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2009
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  28.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  28.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  28.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.4N  30.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  90SE  90SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.3N  32.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.4N  33.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.7N  34.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.7N  34.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N  34.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N  35.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  28.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE