000
WTNT22 KNHC 150425
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
0430 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  45.8W AT 15/0430Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  45.8W AT 15/0430Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  44.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.7N  47.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N  54.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N  58.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N  65.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 25.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  45.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN