000
WTNT21 KNHC 050852
TCMAT1
 
HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  65.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  65.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  65.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.4N  64.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.1N  61.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 38.6N  56.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  60SE  60SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 180SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.9N  50.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 240SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 42.0N  36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 240SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 43.5N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 45.0N  17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N  65.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN