000
WTNT21 KNHC 032031
TCMAT1
 
HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR BERMUDA...THE
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  70.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  934 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  90SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 100SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 240SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  70.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  71.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.0N  68.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 31.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 33.7N  66.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 45.0N  40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.0N  25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N  70.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA