000
WTNT21 KNHC 011455
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI
* ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NOW INCLUDING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS
* ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  73.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  73.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  73.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.9N  74.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.7N  74.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.2N  74.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.5N  73.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 36.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 40.0N  72.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN