000
WTNT21 KNHC 010249
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND,
RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS,
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI
* ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND,
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...BUT
EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
* ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  73.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  73.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  73.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N  73.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.6N  74.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.7N  74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.6N  74.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.6N  74.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 36.2N  75.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 38.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N  73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN