000
WTNT21 KNHC 012046
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  79.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  79.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  79.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.3N  79.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.2N  79.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.4N  79.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.1N  78.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.6N  73.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 42.2N  65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 46.8N  57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N  79.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART