000
WTNT21 KNHC 190250
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE
FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
 
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  81.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  81.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  81.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.6N  81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.1N  81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.2N  81.0W...ON COAST
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.3N  81.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.0N  81.5W...ON COAST
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 32.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 32.0N  84.0W...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N  81.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH