000
WTNT21 KNHC 181438
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2008
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO COCOA BEACH.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH
SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA TO TARPON SPRINGS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N  81.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 65NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N  81.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.6N  81.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N  82.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.8N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.3N  81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 33.6N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 35.5N  82.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N  81.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN