000
WTNT21 KNHC 180238
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2008
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
TARPON SPRINGS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.
 
AT  11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OCEAN REEF.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO
KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  80.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  80.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  80.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N  81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N  82.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.3N  82.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N  82.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.5N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 34.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 37.5N  82.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  80.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH