000
WTNT21 KNHC 170858
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
0900 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EEFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  77.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  77.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  76.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N  78.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N  80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.7N  81.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.4N  82.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  45SW  45NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 32.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 35.5N  82.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  77.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME