000
WTNT21 KNHC 160850
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE
NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF
CENTRAL CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  72.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  72.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  71.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N  74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.6N  76.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N  78.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.8N  79.9W...NEAR SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N  82.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.5N  83.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 32.0N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N  72.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB