000
WTNT21 KNHC 310231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
0300 UTC WED OCT 31 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  78.1W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  78.1W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  77.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.1N  78.8W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.3N  78.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.1N  78.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.6N  76.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.5N  69.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...180NE 100SE   0SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 42.0N  62.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 51.0N  55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  78.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE