000
WTNT21 KNHC 291444
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2007
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  73.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  73.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  72.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N  73.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.4N  74.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.4N  75.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.3N  76.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N  76.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 30.0N  72.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N  73.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB