000
WTNT21 KNHC 281822
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1815 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO
RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA
WESTWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  71.8W AT 28/1815Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  90SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  71.8W AT 28/1815Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  71.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.6N  72.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.7N  74.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.9N  75.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.1N  76.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N  77.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N  77.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 25.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N  71.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB