000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240244
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Satellite and surface data indicate that the center of Patricia made
landfall at about 615 PM CDT (2315 UTC) near Cuixmala, Mexico with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 kt/165 mph.  Since that
time, the eye has become obscured, with a large circular area of
deep convection continuing near the center.  The initial wind speed
is reduced to 115 kt in agreement with the TAFB Dvorak
classification. Rapid weakening should continue as the cyclone
interacts with the mountains of Mexico. The forecast intensity is
largely based on the Decay-SHIPS model, but is a little lower than
that model due to the very high terrain.  Patricia should move to
the north-northeast and northeast ahead of a mid-level trough over
the south-central United States until it dissipates in a day or so.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be
non-tropical in nature.  However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days.  Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.

An unconfirmed sustained wind report of 185 mph and a gust to 211
mph was received from a NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Automated Data
System (HADS) elevated station (295 ft) at Chamela-Cuixmala, Mexico
near the time of landfall.  This observation should be considered
unofficial until it has been quality controlled.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Now that Patricia has moved inland, while the coastal threat is
decreasing, strong and damaging winds, especially at higher
elevations, will persist through Saturday morning.

2.  Very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco,
Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 20.2N 104.6W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
 12H  24/1200Z 22.7N 103.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  25/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stewart