000
WTPZ45 KNHC 221759
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

This Special Advisory updates the initial and forecast intensity of
Patricia, based on a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft SFMR
observation of 114 kt. The aircraft reported that the central
pressure was around 958 mb. Some of the wind radii have also been
adjusted outward. This Special Advisory replaces the 1800 UTC
intermediate advisory.

The environment is expected to be conducive for continued
strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of
very low shear and SSTs above 30C. Some slight weakening is shown on
Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase,
and Patricia could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. After
landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level
circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before
72 hours.

No change was made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and
property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as
tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area
tonight or early Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan