000
WTPZ45 KNHC 221442
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recent
microwave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery.
The initial intensity is set to 85 kt, a bit above the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T4.7/82 kt, and this could be a little
conservative if the eye becomes more distinct in infrared imagery.
Even so, Patricia has intensified 50 kt in the last 24 hours. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today and
provide valuable information on the intensity and structure of the
hurricane.

The environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapid
strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of
very low shear and SSTs above 30C. In fact, the SHIPS RI index
shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours.
The official forecast is close to the upper end of the guidance near
the LGEM, and shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by this
evening and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Little
change in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, as
southwesterly shear begins to increase. After landfall, Patricia
should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should
dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours.

The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward, with an
initial motion estimate of 295/15. The track forecast philosophy has
not changed, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then
northward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery
of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the
hurricane should turn north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track has
again been shifted a little to the left to account for the initial
motion and is near the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus on the western
side of the guidance envelope.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning from north of Cabo
Corrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area.

Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and
property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as
tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area
tonight or early Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 14.9N 103.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan