000
WTPZ45 KNHC 061436
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with the
depression has been increasing during the last several hours and
banding features are becoming better established on the west side
of the circulation.  The Dvorak classifications have increased to
3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.5/35 kt from SAB.  The latest ADT value
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin is 2.9/43 kt.  Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt, making the
system Tropical Storm Linda.

Recent microwave images indicate that the center of Linda is located
on the northeast side of the main area of convection due to
northeasterly shear.  This shear, however, is not expected to be
strong enough to prevent strengthening while Linda remains embedded
in a moist air mass and over 28-29 degree C waters during the next
couple of days.  After 48 hours, the atmosphere is expected to be
drier and more stable near Linda and water temperatures lower along
the forecast track.  These conditions should halt intensification
and result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone.  The NHC intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one and a little above the
intensity model consensus, favoring the solutions of the SHIPS and
LGEM models.

Linda is moving northwestward at about 10 kt, steered by a mid-level
high pressure system centered over northern Mexico and the southern
United States.  The ridge is expected to more or less remain in
place during the next couple of days, which should keep Linda on
the same general course.  After that time, a slowdown is predicted
as the ridge weakens some.  The NHC track forecast has again been
shifted a little to the north and is faster than the previous one,
trending toward the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 14.1N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 15.5N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 22.2N 116.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 23.9N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 25.0N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi