000
WTPZ45 KNHC 182034
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015

ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that Dolores still has a band of
tropical storm force winds within its eastern semicircle, and the
initial intensity remains 35 kt.  However, deep convection continues
to weaken, and the center of the cyclone is now over sea surface
temperatures between 22 and 23 degrees Celsius.  Maximum surface
winds should gradually decrease as the circulation spins down, and
Dolores could be a remnant low within 12 hours if it does not
regenerate deep convection near the center.  Most of the global
models then show the remnant low degenerating into a trough off the
coast of southern California by day 3, and dissipation is indicated
in the official forecast at that time.

Dolores is now moving north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt, around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected
to steer the remnant low north-northwestward and then northward
until dissipation.  The track guidance envelope has shifted a bit
eastward, and the official forecast follows that trend, lying just
to the west of the various multi-model consensus solutions.

Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern
United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and
flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona,
southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah.  Please
refer to statements from your local weather office at
www.weather.gov for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 24.3N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 25.7N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1800Z 28.4N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z 30.8N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1800Z 32.2N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg