000
WTPZ45 KNHC 172033
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

Dolores is producing a patch of deep convection to the west and
northwest of its low-level center.  The maximum winds continue to
decrease, and the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt based on a
blend of the decreasing Dvorak CI numbers.  A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B pass
showed a swath of 40-45 kt winds northwest of the center, and given
the instrument's resolution, it is possible that a small area of
50-kt winds could still be occurring within the deep convection.
Colder water and increasing shear in the next 24-48 hours are
expected to lead to further steady weakening, and Dolores is
forecast to become a tropical depression by 36 hours and a remnant
low by day 3.  The official intensity forecast is near the
intensity consensus.  However, the recent rate of weakening has
been faster than expected, and Dolores could become a remnant low
sooner than shown below.

Dolores appears to have jogged westward today, and the longer-term
motion is 285/9 kt.  The cyclone will be approaching the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next day or so, which
will cause it to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by
48 hours.  Once Dolores becomes a remnant low, weak low-level
steering should cause it to become nearly stationary on day 4 well
southwest of the southern California coast.  The updated NHC track
forecast has been shifted slightly eastward, but still lies west of
the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 21.3N 116.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 21.9N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 23.3N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 25.2N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 27.5N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 30.6N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1800Z 31.0N 121.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg